Stocks Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100: 2461.69 Short-Term Trend: uptrend Outlook: The Nasdaq 100 market remains quite strong as the prices have moved abv the 2460 level. The next upside target is 2545 and I am pretty confident this level will be reached next month. But first, we may see a pullback because the market is overextended on the upside. A decline below 2420 will be a clear sign that wave A has likely ended and a pullback twd 2360 will be expected.... Strategy: Holding long from 2360 is favored. Stop=2420. Target=2540.

S&P500: 1257.91 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: One week ago I favored a long position if the 1267 level was taken out. That happened, but there was no follow through higher. Still, there is a chance that the index will rally in the first week of 2012 and will confirm the bullish breakout. A rally abv 1290/1300 is needed to confirm the presented wave count on the chart above. If however, the index fails below 1230, a faster move down may develop from the faile move up. The confidence is not big, but I slightly favor the bullish case as indicated in our strategy below. Strategy: Holding long from 1267 is favored. Stop=below 1230. Target=1400.

Nasdaq 100: 2237.87 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: The daily chart remains dead neutral as the prices remain between the most recent extremes (2400 on the upside, and 2150 on the downside). The most logical choice for the wave structure is shown on the chart above. I think a Contracting Triangle since the July 2011 top has been under way. The hourly chart shows the recent sell-off is not complete, so further weakness twd 2184 and possibly twd 2100 is expected. Then, another move higher will be seen if our interpretation is correct. Strategy: Stand aside.

By, James A. Hyerczyk AGL Energy Limited FPO (AGK.AX) broke out to the upside of a triangle chart pattern on the 240-minute chart. Not only did the equity CFD surge through a downtrending resistance level, but it also took out the December 5 swing top at 14.70 to change the main trend to up. The size of the candlestick on the breakout indicates the presence of high volatility, putting the market in a position to test the Autochartist forecast price zone at 14.91 to 15.29 over the near-term. The overall quality of the chart pattern is an average 5-bars. The initial trend indicator which looks at the strength of the trend prior to a pattern’s formation was up. Since the breakout was to the upside, this pattern is a continuation move. Its 6-bar rating suggests slightly above average strength. The uniformity rating is also 6-bars. This suggests a slightly above average amount of successful tests of support and resistance. In addition, it...

Nasdaq 100: 2318.95 Short-Term Trend: sideways Outlook: Nasdaq was little changed as it traded sideways last week. First it tried to move higher, but the upside was limited (well below the key 2400/10 resistance level). Then, there was a decline on Wednesday and Thursday to 2278 but the market then recovered nicely on Friday. Overall, on the shorter-term time frames, this price action is constructive. But until we see a clear break on the 2400/10 resistance level, the daily chart is more neutral than anything. So, if you are more aggressive, you can try the long side here as the recent price action is bullish. But if you want to see a confirmation, then one should wait for a breakout to occur first. On the downside, the key level to watch is the late Nov low at 2150. Strategy: Stand aside.

By, James A. Hyerczyk Automotive Holdings Group Limited recently ran into a wall of resistance near 1.91, triggering a gap to the downside and a subsequent break through the support line of a triangle chart pattern on the 60-minute chart. The size of the last candlestick suggests strong momentum that should lead to a near-term test of the Autochartist forecast price zone at 1.81 to 1.76. The overall quality of the chart pattern is rated 6-bars. The initial trend which measures the strength of the trend prior to the chart pattern formation is rated the maximum 10-bars. The uniformity indicator looks for equidistant tops and bottoms as well as measuring the number of successful tests of support and resistance. It is rated an average 5-bars. The clarity rating looks for price “spikes” and “gaps” that can cause a disruption in the flow of the chart pattern. This is important to traders because these patterns can repeat, adding additional risk to a trade....

by, James A. Hyerczyk Bradken Limited (BRN.AX) showed some strength late last week when it broke out over the downtrending resistance line of a flag chart pattern on the 1440-minute chart. The move is impressive because the size of the candlestick indicates there may have been some buying power behind the breakout. The overall quality rating for this chart pattern is a powerful 8-bars. The initial trend rating is the maximum 10-bars. This means that the rally leading up to the chart formation was very strong. Since the breakout was in the direction of the initial trend, Autochartist has identified this as a continuation chart pattern. The 7-bar uniformity rating indicates an above average presence of equidistant tops and bottoms. The quality indicator looks for the existence of “gaps” and “price spikes”. Its 7-bar rating means this solid chart pattern was created without much “market noise”. The flag chart pattern is a trending pattern. The almost parallel support and resistance lines held this...

by, James A. Hyerczyk After making a top at 14.79 on November 23, AGL Energy Limited (AGX.AX) broke sharply, triggering a breakout under the support line of a triangle chart pattern on the 240-minute chart. The move also penetrated the previous swing bottom at 13.96, reaffirming the downtrend and setting up the equity CFD for a test of the next support level at 13.86. A break though this price could trigger a stop-loss acceleration into the Autochartist forecast price zone defined as 13.59 to 13.59. The quality of this chart pattern is a slightly above average 6-bars. The initial trend which measures the strength of the trend prior to the chart pattern’s formation is a weak 2-bars. The solid 9-bar uniformity rating indication equidistant tops and bottoms as well as numerous successful test of support and resistance levels. The clarity indicator is rated 6-bars. This means that the chart pattern contains a slightly above average amount of “market noise”. The triangle chart pattern...

by, James A. Hyerczyk After using 91 candlesticks to form a rising wedge chart pattern on the 240-minute chart, Iluka Resources (ILU.AX) finally broke through the support line, completing the chart pattern and setting up a possible break into the Autochartist forecast zone at 14.00 to 11.55. The overall quality of the chart pattern is a solid 7-bars. The initial trend which is the strength of the trend prior to the chart pattern’s formation is an impressive 9-bars indicating a strong trend. The uniformity indicator looks for equidistant tops and bottoms as well as measuring the number of success touches of support and resistance. The strong 9-bar rating suggests the presence of at least one of these key factors. The low 4-bar clarity rating suggests the presence of “market noise” which may have been in the form of a gap or a market “spike”. The gap down along with a lengthy bearish candlestick triggered the breakdown through the support line. Before this equity...

by, James A. Hyerczyk A late session surge in Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH.AX) triggered a breakout over the resistance line of a falling wedge chart pattern on the 240-minute chart. The move signals the start of a possible rally into the Autochartist forecast zone at .59 to .60. The overall quality of the chart pattern is a below average 4-bars. The initial trend which measures the strength of the trend prior to the chart pattern’s formation is a well-below average 2-bars. This signals a weak initial trend. The uniformity indicator is important because it measures the number of touches of the support and resistance lines. A low uniformity rating indicates few touches. It also looks for equidistant tops and bottoms. The current rating is a below average 4-bars. The clarity indicator is an above average 6-bars. This means the pattern was formed with minimal market noise, typically indicated by “spikes”. The falling wedge chart pattern is a trending pattern. It carries the characteristics...