Ivan Kitov » profile |
about Ivan Kitov
Doctor of Physics and Mathematics; Lead Researcher, the Institute for the Geospheres' Dynamics, RAS. A founding member of the ECINEQ. The co-editor of the TPREF (http://www.asers.eu/journals/tpref.html) .
Snapshot
Academic / Student: Professor
Ivan Kitov'S BLOG
Economics is a hard science with robust statistical links between measured variables such as GDP, population, inflation, labor force participation, labor productivity, personal income distribution, S&P 500 stock market index, prices of goods and services, stock prices, etc.
http://mechonomic.blogspot.com/
Ivan Kitov'S BOOK
"mechanomics. Economics as Classical Mechanics"
Macroeconomics is represented as a hard science like physics and, specifically, classical mechanics. Due to this similarity we have called our concept ?mec?anomics? highlighting its mechanistic entity. There exist statistically reliable deterministic links between measured macroeconomic variables. In the order of causality, the overall population and its age structure drives the evolution of real GDP which, in turn, determines the rate of participation in workforce. The level of labour force unambiguously defines the rate of price inflation and unemployment. The age structure also controls the S&P 500 returns. Statistically, the goodness-of-fit between measured and predicted macroeconomic time series is at the level of 0.9, with the residuals likely related to measurement errors. Tests for cointegration confirm the presence of long-term equilibrium relations. We have extended the sets of econometric tools by the method of boundary elements well-known in physics. As a bonus to the prolific concept of mec?anomics, we have modelled real GDP per capita during the transition from socialism to capitalism combining two physical processes: radioactive decay and saturation.
latest articles
- 1.Unemployment in the UK
- 2.Gasoline Price in 2011
- 3.When the rate of unemployment will fall to 5%? Likely...
- 4.Food price. Quarterly update
- 5.Housing price index. Quarterly update
- 6.CPI and Core CPI – Quarterly Update
- 7.Recession? In 2012-2013!
- 8.People without Income. Worrying Trends
- 9.Young men do not feel real economic growth
- 10.Krugman on the effect of quantitative easing in Japan
